Daily Morning Commentary

Euro extends losses to hit fresh four-month lows

18-May-2012

  •  The euro fell this morning to hit a four-month low against the dollar as concerns rise about a chaotic Greek exit from the euro zone, banking sector worries and contagion risks drove investors to bearish positions.
  • With little in the way of new data out today, market attention will continue to be focused on the euro crisis and in particular upon the political uncertainties in Greece.
  • Sterling fell against the euro yesterday, which underperformed most other currencies as market players fretted over the risk that more euro debtor governments could be drawn deeper into the crisis..
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Euro pauses decent

17-May-2012

  •  The euro held above a four-month low this morning, taking a breather from a sharp sell-off, although gains are likely to be checked by worries about the solvency of some Greek banks that are adding to fears the country may exit the euro zone.
  • Sterling hit a one-month low against the dollar this morning as concerns about Greece ditching the euro boosted demand for the safe-haven U.S. currency, with investors also wary of the pound after the Bank of England cut UK growth forecasts.
  • Greece faces fresh elections on June 17 that could see parties opposed to austerity take power and, in a further blow to investor confidence, the European Central Bank halted liquidity operations with some Greek banks because they are severely undercapitalised..
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Greek worries weigh on Euro

16-May-2012

  • The euro hovered at four-month lows against the dollar this morning and was likely to extend hefty losses sustained so far this month after Greece said it would hold new elections, increasing the risk Athens could exit the euro. 
  • Greece's president asked politicians yesterday to stand aside and let a government of technocrats steer the nation away from bankruptcy, but leftists have already rejected the proposal and look set to force a new election they reckon they can win.
  • Sterling rose to a 3-1/2 year high against the euro yesterday on worries about political instability in Greece, though investors were also wary of downbeat forecasts in the Bank of England's pending inflation report, checking its gains.
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Euro dips as Greek worries persist

15-May-2012

  • The euro hit its lowest level in nearly four months this morning after Greek political leaders failed in their latest efforts to form a ruling coalition, keeping investors on edge over the risk of the country exiting the euro zone.  
  • Coalition talks in Greece hit an impasse on Sunday and Greece's radical leftist leader spurned an invitation from the president for a final round of talks today, all but ensuring a new election.
  • Sterling hit a three-week low against the dollar on Friday as risk aversion stemming from U.S. bank losses and political turmoil in Greece boosted the safe-haven U.S. currency, while also easing off a three and a half year high against the euro.
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Euro hits 4 month low

14-May-2012

  • The euro hit its lowest level in nearly four months this morning after Greek political leaders failed in their latest efforts to form a ruling coalition, keeping investors on edge over the risk of the country exiting the euro zone.  
  • Coalition talks in Greece hit an impasse on Sunday and Greece's radical leftist leader spurned an invitation from the president for a final round of talks today, all but ensuring a new election.
  • Sterling hit a three-week low against the dollar on Friday as risk aversion stemming from U.S. bank losses and political turmoil in Greece boosted the safe-haven U.S. currency, while also easing off a three and a half year high against the euro.
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Euro hits 3 and a half month low

11-May-2012

  • The euro hit a 3-1/2-month low this morning as news of JPMorgan's trading losses from a failed hedging strategy spooked investors and lent support to the safe haven dollar, with stop-loss selling adding to the euro's drop.  
  • The euro has come under pressure this week after Greece's two main pro-bailout parties failed to win a majority in weekend elections, leaving questions over the country's ability to avert bankruptcy and stay in the euro.
  • Sterling rose yesterday after the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold and halted its asset-buying quantitative easing programme, wrong-footing some investors who had positioned for further policy easing.
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Euro near 3 and a half month low

10-May-2012

  • The euro wallowed near a 3 1/2-month low against the dollar this morning as political deadlock in Greece threatens its rescue deal and raises the spectre of the country risking insolvency and leaving the euro zone.
  • Greek Leftist leader Alexis Tsipras gave up his attempt to form a new government yesterday, putting Greek Socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos in a position to make a last-ditch attempt to form a government this morning.
  • Sterling rose to a near three-year high against a trade-weighted basket of currencies this morning, boosted by strong gains against the euro as investors fretted political uncertainty in Greece would exacerbate the euro zone debt crisis.
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Euro dips as political risks weigh

09-May-2012

  • The euro fell close to a recent three-month low this morning, hurt by worries that political uncertainty in Greece and a French leadership change may undermine austerity plans key to tackling the euro zone's debt crisis.
  • The euro stayed under pressure after the leader of Greece's Left Coalition party said yesterday that the country's commitment to a European Union/International Monetary Fund rescue deal had become null and void.
  • Sterling rose to its highest in more than two and a half years against a trade-weighted basket of currencies this morning as euro zone worries earlier pushed the pound to its highest since late 2008 against the euro.
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Anti-austerity votes continue to weight on the Euro

08-May-2012

  •  The euro eased this morning  but stayed above the previous day's three-month low, with the potential for short covering seen offering the currency some support even as political uncertainty in Greece clouded its outlook.
  • A first attempt to form a new Greek government collapsed in less than a day yesterday, following an election that left gaping questions over the country's ability to avert bankruptcy and stay in the euro.
  • In Greece the failure of the two main parties supporting the country's international bailout to secure a parliamentary majority threw into question the future of the programme and potentially Greece's membership of the euro.
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Euro and Dollar sit tight before US payrolls

04-May-2012


  • The dollar held steady versus the yen and euro this morning, but could face downside risks if U.S. jobs data disappoints and stirs renewed speculation about further monetary easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
  • After the ECB kept rates steady at 1 percent as expected and an uneventful Spanish bond auction on Thursday, the focus now shifts to U.S. jobs data later on Friday as well as elections in France and Greece on Sunday.
  • In Europe the services PMI data from Germany, Italy, France and Spain will be pretty important, especially after the weakness in manufacturing PMIs earlier in the week.
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Euro and kiwi slip on weak data

03-May-2012

  • The euro hovered near a two-week low against the dollar this morning, having fallen sharply overnight on the back of more depressing economic news out of Europe that has put the spotlight on the central bank's policy meeting later in the day.
  • Yesterday's Italian PMI was much weaker than expected and the new orders component sharply fell , that plus weaker German employment numbers put pressure on the Euro.
  • Recently downgraded Spain are looking to raise funds in the bond market Today, the European Central Bank will be under pressure at its policy meeting to do more to shield weaker euro zone members from additional pain. 
  • The New Zealand dollar fell after a jump in the local jobless rate caused markets to price in a small chance of a rate cut this year, a dramatic turnaround from just a couple of weeks ago.
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Dollar bounced back from 2-1/2 month lows

02-May-2012


  •  The euro's fortune is seen largely hinging on tomorrows European Central Bank meeting and weekend elections in Greece and France, on top of Friday's U.S. job report.
  • Final EZ PMI will be a focus this morning, though it would be surprising if there were any significant improvement from the poor numbers seen in the flash estimate.
  • The dollar bounced back this morning from 2-1/2-month lows against the Japanese yen after upbeat U.S. manufacturing data soothed fears the economy was slowing, though gains were kept minimal ahead of key events such as the U.S. jobs data.
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AUD slumps after RBA surprise

01-May-2012

  • Sterling rose to fresh multi-month highs on a trade-weighted basis yesterday as investors continued to view the UK currency as a safer bet than the ailing euro and a softening U.S. dollar.
  • The Australian dollar tumbled this morning after the Reserve Bank of Australia slashed rates by a deeper-than-expected 50 basis points while the U.S. dollar stayed near a two-month low against a basket of currencies following a string of disappointing data.
  • A sharp fall in business activity in the U.S. Midwest combined with data showing Spain in recession helped dent investor appetite for risk, pushing the yen to fresh two-month highs against the dollar after it rallied across the board overnight and broke through major chart resistance levels.
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Dollar index falls to 2-month low

30-Apr-2012

  •  The dollar hit a fresh two-month low versus the yen and eight-month trough against sterling this morning, staying under pressure after data last week showed disappointing first-quarter U.S economic growth.
  • The dollar is likely to take cues later this week from a batch of U.S. economic data, including the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) gauges of the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as U.S. jobs data.
  • Sterling rose to its highest in more than two-and-a-half years on a trade-weighted basis this morning, as investors continued to favour the British currency as a safer alternative than the ailing euro and softening dollar.
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Spian downgrade dents Euro

27-Apr-2012

  • The euro hovered near a three-week high against the dollar this morning after euro zone sovereign debt attracted decent demand and strong earnings from Apple boosted risk appetite, while focus turned to the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting.
  • Investors were relieved when successful auctions sent yields on Dutch, Spanish and Italian debt lower yesterday, a day after the government in the Netherlands collapsed in a crisis over budget cuts.
  • Sterling climbed to its highest in two-and-a-half years against a trade-weighted basket of currencies yesterday, lifted by its robust performance against the euro and the dollar as it remained a popular alternative to a troubled euro zone.
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Euro hits 3 week high Vs broadly weak dollar

26-Apr-2012

  • The U.S. dollar floundered at three-week lows against a basket of major currencies this morning , after the Federal Reserve did little to alter the perception that it remained deeply committed to a dovish policy stance.
  • Debt yields of Spain and France also eased sharply from recent highs yesterday, although Italian debt had less luck due to caution ahead of a debt auction by Rome tomorrow.
  • Sterling fell from recent highs against the euro yesterday after data showed the UK economy had slid back into recession, keeping alive the chances of more monetary stimulus from the Bank of England.
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Euro up after successful Dutch bond sale

25-Apr-2012

  • The euro hovered near a three-week high against the dollar this morning after euro zone sovereign debt attracted decent demand and strong earnings from Apple boosted risk appetite, while focus turned to the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting.
  • Investors were relieved when successful auctions sent yields on Dutch, Spanish and Italian debt lower yesterday, a day after the government in the Netherlands collapsed in a crisis over budget cuts.
  • Sterling climbed to its highest in two-and-a-half years against a trade-weighted basket of currencies yesterday, lifted by its robust performance against the euro and the dollar as it remained a popular alternative to a troubled euro zone.
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All eyes on Dutch Bond Sale

24-Apr-2012

  • The euro struggled to make much headway this morning, having suffered a setback overnight on renewed worries about Europe's economic health and ahead of a key bond sale in the Netherlands.
  • The Australian dollar hit a two-week trough after soft inflation data bolstered expectations of deep interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Sterling rose to a 20-month high against a weakened euro yesterday on the back of more political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands.
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Euro retreats as IMF provides little boost

23-Apr-2012

  • The euro retreated from two-week highs against the dollar this morning, pausing after its best weekly performance since February and drawing limited support from the weekend decision to double the International Monetary Fund's war chest.
  • Investors believe that worries about upcoming debt auctions in Italy and the Netherlands and concerns about a possible political backlash against austerity measures could keep the single currency in check in coming days.
  • Upbeat UK retail sales sent sterling to a 20-month high against a trade-weighted basket of currencies and its strongest in more than five months versus the dollar on Friday as investors become more optimistic about the UK economic outlook.
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Spanish yields edge up

20-Apr-2012

  •  A relatively successful Spanish auction wasn't enough to turn sentiment in Europe, as Spanish yields rose further after the auction.
  • Weaker than expected US data added to the gloom and Italian bond yields widened sharply, the 10 year pushed out 13bps to 5.60% after Industrial Orders data showed a 13.2% drop in orders compared to a year ago.
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Sterling extended gains to 20 month high

19-Apr-2012

  • Sterling extended gains this morning to hit a 20-month high against the euro and on a trade-weighted basis.
  • The Euro could come under fresh pressure toady as Spain tests investors' confidence in its debt-ridden economy when it tries to sell new two- and 10-year bond.
  • Significant upcoming events that could affect risk appetite include an International Monetary Fund meeting on Friday and jobs and mortgage data from the United States
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Euro falls Vs dollar after Sarkozy comment

18-Apr-2012

  • The euro fell against the dollar this morning after French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the euro's exchange rate should be up for discussion with the European Central Bank.
  • Good demand at yesterday's Spanish bill sale, helped nudge 10-year yields back below the six percent threshold they reached on Monday on concern over the banking system, deficit and recession - a point below levels considered unsustainable.
  • Sterling rose against the dollar yesterday after data showed UK inflation ticked up as expected in March, while a smooth Spanish bill auction fuelled investor appetite to buy alternative currencies to the safe haven greenback.
  • Meanwhile, the Euro was trading flat against the pound. The Euro has strong support at the psychologically important 82 pence level.
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Euro remains vulnerable ahead of Spanish bond auction

17-Apr-2012

  • The euro lost some ground today, a day after short-covering helped it pull away from two-month lows against the dollar, and remained vulnerable ahead of a Spanish bond auction as euro zone debt jitters showed no signs of abating.
  • Commodity currencies were also slightly lower after Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes showed it would consider cutting rates in May if data due next week confirmed a benign inflation outlook.
  • Sterling rose to its highest in 19 months against the euro yesterday and was poised for more gains as concerns grew about debt problems in Spain, prompting investors to seek alternatives to the common currency. 
  • With recent data suggesting the UK economy is showing some signs of improvement, investors have bought sterling as they pull out of euro zone assets. 
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Euro near $1.30 as Spain rekindles debt worries

16-Apr-2012

  • The euro slumped today, hitting a one-month low against the dollar and 1-1/2 year low against the British pound as soaring bond yields in Spain rekindled worries about the fragile state of the euro zone economy.
  • Spain's government bond yields rose and the cost of insuring its debt hit an all-time high on Friday, as record borrowing by its banks from the European Central Bank highlighted fears about the country's finances before it tests market appetite for its debt on Thursday.
  • Sterling's ability to extend its broad-based gains hinges on whether UK central bankers show concern about the potential damage to exports and whether data in the coming weeks confirms the economic recovery is on track. 
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Euro falls after China growth data disappoints

13-Apr-2012

  • The euro and the Australian dollar eased today after Chinese growth data disappointed traders positioning for a strong showing, but other Chinese data came mostly in line with, or above expectations, limiting the downside.
  • China's economy grew at its weakest pace in nearly three years in the first quarter, with the annual rate of expansion slowing more than expected to 8.1 percent from 8.9 percent in the previous three months, the National Bureau of Statistics said today.
  • Sterling surged to a 19-month peak on a trade-weighted basket of currencies yesterday, posing risks to exports and the British government's aim to rebalance the economy. 
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Euro resilient Vs the dollar

12-Apr-2012

  • This week, the Euro has remained resilient against the US dollar, even after Euro Zone debt yields stroked fear that the debt crisis was beginning to rear its ugly head once again.
  • Italian three-year borrowing costs are set to jump by a full percentage point from a month ago at a bond auction today, the latest sign investors' concerns about Spain are spreading to other euro zone countries hit by recession.
  • Sterling rose to its highest in 14 months against a trade-weighted basket of currencies yesterday, bolstered by improving UK data, while the pound held near a three-month high against the euro. 
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Rise in euro zone debt yields stoke fear of crisis relapse

11-Apr-2012

  • The euro lost ground against the U.S. currency this morning, slipping from yesterday's high of $1.3145. Unsettling the single currency, Spanish bond yields rose to within a whisker of 6 percent and German bund yields equaled their lowest-ever levels as investors opted for the safety of German debt.
  • Investors shunning risk around the world had the Swiss franc trading within sight of 1.20 per euro today, but the spectre of Swiss National Bank intervention was capping any gains in the safe-haven unit.
  • Sterling rose to its highest level in 14 months against a basket of currencies today as the British pound hovered close to three month highs against the euro. 
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A big week for Fed Speeches

10-Apr-2012

  • The Euro was a shade stronger against the dollar, gaining 0.1 percent, moving further away from a one-month low. Risk assets were reasonably resilient as a large number of investors seem to be wagering that soft U.S. payrolls data may bring forward the next round of quantitative easing.
  • The Aussie was supported after China recorded a $5.35 billion trade surplus in March as exports grew faster than expected, customs data showed today.
  • Sterling rose to its highest in more than 13 months against a basket of currencies today as it hovered close to its highest in nearly three months against the euro
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